| 吉林省粮食生产格局变化及其影响因素研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 何秀丽,张平宇,程叶青.吉林省粮食生产格局变化及其影响因素研究[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(5):1536-1538. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何秀丽 张平宇 程叶青 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林长春,130012 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)
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中国科学院知识创新工程项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据1949～2003年吉林省各市(县)统计数据和实地调研资料,借助滑动平均算法和GIS软件,以及运用灰色系统理论分析粮食生产过程,揭示了近50年吉林省粮食产量的时空格局演变规律及其人文影响因素.结果表明:①近50年来,吉林省粮食生产格局变动明显,粮食产量年际波动大而且区域差异显著,粮食产量两极比接近200∶1;②中偏西部年均粮食产量最高、中部次高、东部和西部最低,并体现出高产区年均增长率低、中低产区增长速度和潜力较大的态势;③影响粮食生产格局发生变化的10个主要因素的灰色关联度为0.66～0.99之间,其中,粮食单产是首要影响因子.最后提出了促进粮食生产稳定增长,优化其空间结构的政策建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食生产 空间格局 灰色关联分析 吉林省 |
| 文章编号： | 0517-6611（2007）05-01536-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-15 |
Study on Pattern Changes and Influencing Factor of Grain Production in Jilin Province |
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| HE Xiu-li et al.Study on Pattern Changes and Influencing Factor of Grain Production in Jilin Province[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2007,35(5):1536-1538. |
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| Authors: | HE Xiu-li |
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| Institution: | Institute of Northeast Geography and Agricultural Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130012 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the statistic data of Jilin province from 1949 to 2003,the process of grain product in Jilin province was analyzed in this paper.And the temporal and spatial evolution rule of the grain product and its humane impact factors were revealed by utilizing slide mean algorithm and GIS,and applying grey system theory.The results showed: ①in the last fifty years,there was significant change of grain product pattern,annual fluctuation and regional differentials;②there were the highest level of annual grain product in the middle west,higher in the middle and lowest in the east and west Jilin province;③the grey relevance degree of the ten influencing factors were between 0.66 and 0.99,among which grain yield per capita was the top one.Finally,some policies were provided in order to accelerate grain yield and optimize spatial structure of grain production. |
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| Keywords: | Grain production Spatial pattern Grey relevance analysis Jilin province |
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