小麦赤霉病气象等级预报模式研究

目的]准确开展小麦赤霉病流行程度预报,科学合理地防治小麦赤霉病。方法]对小麦赤霉病发生具有影响的气象因子进行统计分析,确定赤霉病致病日,计算赤霉病感病期间逐日诱发修正系数、赤霉病致病日的持续时间诱发修正系数,建立促病指数模型,判别小麦赤霉病气象条件适宜程度及发生的等级。结果]经过42年资料的拟合、验证,模型能够准确判别出气象等级为4级(即赤霉病不流行)的年份。拟合的赤霉病发生气象等级在1~3级的年份各地均超过90%,误差1个等级的占24%~38%,误差2个等级的占0~9%。2007年动态试报结果与实况相符。结论]该方法比较真实地反映了当年的发病程度,可投入实际业务应用。

Study on Prediction Model of Meteorological Grades for Wheat Scab

Objective] The study was to provide a base for the accurate forecast of epidemic degree and scientific and reasonable prevention of wheat scab.Method] By statistically analyzing meteorological factors affecting wheat scab outbreak,the pathogenic-day of scab was determined.The daily inducing correction index of scab in outbreak time and the duration inducing correction index of scab pathogenic-day were calculated.Promoting-disease-index models were established to determine and the suitable degree and occurrence grades of meteorological conditions on wheat scab.Result] After fitting and verification of 42 year data,the model could accurately discriminate the years of 4th meteorological grade(namely no scab prevalence),the fitting years of 1st-3rd meteorological grade of scab emergence were more than 90% in everywhere,while the error of 1 grade was 24%-38% and the error of 2 grades was 0-9%.The dynamic experiment forecast result in 2007 was according with the reality.Conclusion] The method could really reflect the disease degree in current year and could be applied in actuality.