气候变化背景下的南北疆河流径流变化对比分析

选取克兰河、开都河和托什干河流域为研究区域,利用有关水文气象台站1957～2010年的观测资料,对研究区域的气温、降水与径流的变化特征及趋势进行了分析,并根据研究区域气候变化的特征与趋势及径流与降水、气温之间的关系,揭示阿尔泰山南坡克兰河、天山南坡开都河和托什干河径流对气候变化的响应及其差异。结果表明,近54年来,受山区降水、气温持续增加和上升的影响,克兰河、开都河与托什干河流域气温、降水量和径流总体呈上升趋势,特别是在1980年以后的升幅尤为显著。克兰河与开都河径流与降水量均呈正相关关系,相对而言,克兰河径流对降水的变化较开都河更为敏感,而开都河径流对气温的变化较克兰河更为敏感;托什干河径流与气温呈正相关关系,托什干河与开都河虽对气温的变化都比较敏感,但是相对而言,托什干河径流对气温的变化较开都河更为敏感。该研究为克兰河、开都河和托什干河流域水资源的合理开发利用和科学管理提供了有针对性的决策参考。

Comparative Analysis of River Runoff Variation in the North and South of Xinjiang River under the Background of Climate Change

Selecting Kelan River,Kaidu River and Tuoshigan River Basin as study area,using observation data of hydro-meteorological stations during 1957-2010,the variation characteristics and trends of temperature,precipitation and runoff in study area were analyzed.According to climatic variation characteristics and trends in study area,relationship between runoff and temperature,precipitation,the response of runoff to climate change and differences in Kelan River,Kaidu River and Tuoshegan River were revealed.The results showed that affected by precipitation,temperature continuous increasing and rising in recent 57 years,temperature,precipitation and runoff in Kelan River,Kaidu River and Tuoshigan River indicate ascendant trend,and increased significantly after 1980.Runoff and precipitation of Kelan River and Kaidu River were positively correlated,in relative terms,runoff of Kelan River on the change of precipitation was more sensitive than Kaidu River,runoff of Kaidu River on temperature change was more sensitive than Kelan River.Tuoshigan river runoff was positively correlated with air temperature,relatively speaking,Tuoshigan river runoff on the temperature change was more sensitive than Kaidu river.The study will provide decision-making reference for appropriate utilization and scientific management of water resource in Kelan River,Kaidu River and Tuoshegan River.