气候变化对天水冬小麦生产潜力开发程度的影响

计算了天水3个气候区冬小麦生产潜力开发程度、适宜开发程度和可开发程度,分析了气候变化对其影响情况。结果表明,冬小麦在渭北区、河谷区和关山区的冬小麦生产潜力开发程度仍较偏低,为49.9%～60.0%;生产潜力适宜开发程度和可开发程度都较高,分别达73.6%～78.7%和18.7%～23.8%,排序为渭北区〉河谷区〉关山区,长远看还有很大的潜力可以挖掘;冬小麦生长季平均温度、日照时数对冬小麦生产潜力开发程度、适宜开发程度和可开发程度具有负效应,降水量则具有正效应。其中,全生育期温度、秋季温度和冬季日照对天水、渭北小麦生产潜力开发程度负效应显著,全生育期降水、秋季降水在天水和各气候区正效应显著;并提出了区域生产潜力适度开发的对策措施。

Impact of Climate Change on the Exploitation Degree of Production Potential of Winter Wheat in Tianshui

The exploitation degree,suitable exploitation degree and exploitable exploitation degree of production potential of winter wheat in three climate zones of Tianshui were calculated.The impacts of climate changes on it were analyzed.The results showed the exploitation degree of production potential of winter wheat was still low in the north of Wei River,the valley of Wei River and the area of Guan Mountain in Tianshui,being 49.9%-60.0%.The suitable exploitation degree and exploitable exploitation degree of production potential of winter wheat was high,being 73.6%-78.7% and 18.7%-23.8% respectively.The sequencing was the north of Wei River>the valley of Wei River > the area of Guan Mountain.From the long-term view,it was of great potential to be excavated.The average temperature,sunshine hours for growth season of winter wheat had negative effects on exploitation degree,suitable exploitation degree and exploitable degree of production potential of winter wheat.The precipitation had the positive effect.And the temperature in the entire growth period,temperature in autumn,the sunshine in winter had remarkable negative effect on the exploitation degree of the production potential in Tianshui and the north of Wei River.The precipitation in the entire growth period,the precipitation in autumn had remarkable positive effect in Tianshui and each climate zones.And some moderate development countermeasures of regional production potential were proposed.