新疆天山北部气候变化及其对径流的影响

目的]研究新疆天山北部气候变化及其对径流的影响。方法]利用新疆天山北部16个气象站和肯斯瓦特近51年的气象、水文实测资料,运用非参数Mann-Kendall单调趋势及突变检验、小波分析、R/S分析及周期性叠加趋势模型,对新疆天山北部气候变化及玛纳斯河的时间序列进行了分析,探讨了近51年来新疆天山北部气候及径流变化的趋势、突变、周期、未来变化趋势及气候变化对源、干流年径流的影响量。结果]新疆天山北部气温、降水量皆呈显著性增加趋势,且其Hurst指数均大于0.5,表明未来的一段时间内仍将保持这种走势;从年代际来看,1957～1959年气温偏低,降水量偏多,为低温多雨期,60和70年代为低温少雨期8,0年代气温接近多年平均值,降水量偏少,进入90年代以后为高温多雨期,并在2000～2007年尤为显著;气温、降水量分别在19951、996年发生了1.1℃和30.2mm的显著性增多突变;气温在112、2年处周期性显著,降水量存在5、81、42、2年的主周期。玛纳斯河流域年径流量与气候因子均存在周期性与趋势性,且呈周期性波动上升趋势;该流域年径流量和气候因子存在显著的相关关系,气温与年径流量的关系比降水量更密切。结论]该研究为新疆天山北部的水资源合理配置、生态保护和农业生产提供科学指导。

Climate Change and Its Effects on Runoff in the North of Tianshan, Xinjiang

Objective] The aim was to study climate changes in northern Tianshan in Xinjiang and its influences on runoff.Method] Based on the runoff data for 51 years of Kenswatt station on Manas River and the climate date of 16 meteorological stations from 1957 to 2007 in the north of Tianshan in Xinjiang,the climate change and temporal series of the annual runoff were studied by nonparametric test,wavelet analysis,R/S analysis and periodic trend superposition model.Result] The temperature,precipitation and annual runoff of Manas River increased significantly.The Hurst coefficients of both climate factors and the annual runoff were bigger than 0.5,which indicated that they would still keep an increasing trend.Temperature from 1957 to 1959 was low,precipitation was much,belonging to low temperature and more rain period.1960s and 1970s were low temperature and less rain period.Temperature in 1980s was close to average value and precipitation was little.Since 1990s,it entered into high temperature and less rain period and was significant during 2000 and 2007.The temperature and precipitation changed in 1995 and 1996.Temperature was significant in 11 and 22 years.Precipitation had 5,8,14 and 22 years of main cycle.The annual runoff and climate factors in Manasi River were increasing in different times.The annual runoff was related to climate factors,and temperature was closer to annual runoff than precipitation.Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the reasonable configuration,ecological protection and agricultural production of water resources in north Tianshan in Xinjiang.