新疆耕地资源变化与社会经济发展的相关性研究

以1978～2008年的新疆的相关统计资料为基础,借鉴并参考前人的研究,分析了新疆耕地资源数量动态变化的趋势,同时运用逐步回归分析法,探讨了耕地数量动态变化与社会经济因子之间的关系。结果表明,新疆的耕地数量呈现出缓慢增长的趋势,人均耕地面积逐年下降,农业人口的增加以及社会经济的快速发展给耕地带来了不小的压力;农业人口数、人均GDP和城市化水平对耕地资源数量变动的驱动作用比较明显。因此,新疆应在经济发展和耕地保护方面予以协调,采取多样化的措施提高经济发展质量,保护耕地质量。

Study on the Correlation between the Change of Farmland Resource and the Development of Society and Economy in Xinjiang

Based on the related statistics of Xinjiang and the previous studies during 1978-2008,the change trend of the farmland resources in Xinjiang was analyzed,and then the relations between the change of farmland resources and the development of society and economy were discussed with the stepwise regression method.As indicated by the results,the farmland resources n Xinjiang presented a slow growing trend,but the per capita farmland area was decreasing year by year,the growth of agricultural population and the rapid development of society and economy brought great pressure to the farmland,and the change of the farmland resources was mainly driven by rural population,per capita GDP and urbanization level.Thus,Xinjiang government should well coordinate the relations between economic development and farmland protection,and adopt diverse measures to develop the economy and protect the farmland.