未来气候情景下中国亚热带地区木荷气候适宜性

目的]研究未来气候情景下我国亚热带地区木荷的气候适宜度及其区域分布对气候变化的响应。方法]基于气候-植被相关的Kira模型和Holdridge模型以及生态适宜度理论,运用模糊数学的方法,构建了木荷的气候适宜度模型;选取亚热带地区1960～2005年264个气象站点的逐日气象资料,并采用空间插值的技术,对亚热带地区木荷的温度、降水、可能蒸散率适宜度进行分析;引用汤剑平根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情况特别报告(SRES)的未来情景模拟结果,研究IPCCA2情景下我国亚热带地区未来气候情景下木荷的气候适宜度及其变化,并对未来木荷的气候适宜度进行分类。结果]在未来气候情景下,湖南大部分地区、广东北部、广西东北部、浙江的东部沿海木荷的气候适宜度较强;广西的中部,贵州的东部,江西、福州的中部适合木荷的生长;贡山-维西-丽江-元江-会泽-雷波-峨眉-内江-南充-巴中-钟祥-枣阳-信阳-六安-滁州-高邮-台东以北的亚热带地区,木荷的生长适宜度仍然较低;云南、四川的西部的气候适宜度变化较大。结论]木荷的未来气候适宜度变化受温度、可能蒸散率的影响较大,未来气候适宜度由湖南向西、向北递减;在时间上,未来气候情景下的气候适宜性随时间的推移有下降的趋势。

Climate Suitability of Schima superba in Subtropical Zone of China under Future Climate Scenario

Objective] The research aimed to study climate suitability of S.superba in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario and response of its regional distribution on climate change.Method] Based on climate-vegetation related Kira model,Holdridge model and ecological suitability theory,climate suitability model of S.superba was established by using fuzzy mathematics.Based on the daily meteorological data at 246 stations from 1960 to 2005 in subtropical zone,by using spatial interpolation method,suitability of S.superba on temperature,precipitation,potential evapotranspiration rate was analyzed.The future scenario simulation result by Tang Jianping according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario(SRES) was used.Climate suitability of S.superba and its change were studied in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario and IPCC A2 scenario.Climate suitability of S.superba in future was classified.Result] Under future climate scenario,climate suitability of S.superba was stronger in most of areas in Hunan,north Guangdong,northeast Guangxi and east coast of Zhejiang.It was suitable for growth of S.superba in central Guangxi,east Guizhou,central Jiangxi and Fuzhou.Growth suitability of S.superba was still lower in Gongshan-Weixi-Lijiang-Yuanjiang-Huize-Leibo-Emei-Neijiang-Nanchong-Bazhong-Zhongxiang-Zaoyang-Xinyang-Lu’an-Chuzhou-Gaoyou-north Taitung.Climate suitability in Yunnan and west Sichuan had big change.Conclusion] Future climate suitability change of S.superba was greatly affected by temperature and potential evapotranspiration.Future climate suitability was decreasing toward west and north from Hunan.The climate suitability had a decline trend as time went by under future climate scenario.