罗非鱼成鱼养殖生产预警指标体系的构建

随着渔业与水产养殖业的发展,罗非鱼已成为我国水产品中与国际市场联系最紧密的品种之一。影响罗非鱼成鱼养殖生产的因素很多,并且最终都反映在产量、质量、价格因素上。为了保障罗非鱼产业成鱼养殖生产的可持续发展,生产预警系统的构建势在必行。指标体系是预警系统的重要组成部分,是构建预警系统不可或缺的基础。建立了一套生产预警指标体系,并确定了总产量增长率、质量增长率及价格增长率3个警情指标。首先确定安全预警系数R,并根据R值的范围来确定警限,反映罗非鱼成鱼生产安全的不同警级。最后,通过建立这3个警情指标的运算模型,分析预测罗非鱼成鱼养殖生产的变化情况。

Establishment of the Early Warning Index System for Tilapia Aquaculture

With the development of fisheries and aquaculture,tilapia has become one of the closest species of aquatic products in contact with the international market.There are many factors affecting tilapia culture,and ultimately are reflected in the production,quality and price factors.In order to make sure the sustainable development of the tilapia production industry,the industrial production of early warning systems will be the trend in the future.And the index system is an important part of the early warning system,it is the essential foundation to build an early warning system.The paper set up an index system for tilapia aquaculture early warning,and determined three indices of the total production growth,quality growth and price growth rate.Then the safety warning coefficient R,alarm limits,and the scope of the R were determined to reflect the different level of tilapia culture,and the changes of tilapia culture were forecasted by setting up the calculating model of the three indices.