棉花冰雹灾害风险评价——以安徽省为例

目的]揭示安徽省棉花雹灾风险格局。方法]基于安徽省棉花雹灾风险评价数据库,采用统计推断法和综合指标度量法,提取雹灾致灾强度指数(H)和棉花损失率(L);使用Matlab和SPSS软件,拟合棉花苗期、蕾期、铃期和吐絮期4条雹灾脆弱性曲线;基于构建的棉花雹灾年度灾害损失率计算模型Sa=∑ni=1Si-∏ni=1Si=1-∏ni=1(1-Si),开展安徽省棉花雹灾风险评价,并编绘风险评价图谱。结果]安徽省棉花雹灾高风险区集中在东北部地区和皖西山地丘陵区,低风险区分布在长江中下游地区和皖南山区,与棉花历史雹灾空间分布吻合较好。结论]该研究探讨了基于不完备信息数据的雹灾风险评价方法,可为其他地区雹灾风险评价提供方法和技术参考。

Risk Assessment on Hail Disaster of Cotton

Objective] The aim was to reveal the pattern of hail disaster risk for cotton in Anhui Province.Method] Statistical inference and comprehensive indices measurement were made use of for extraction of disastrous index of hail(H) and loss rate of cotton(L) based on database of risk evaluation on hail disaster for cotton in Anhui Province;hail vulnerability curves in four stages(seedling,bud,boll and boll opening stages) of cotton were fitted by Matlab and SPSS software;risk evaluation on hail disaster of cotton in Anhui Province was conducted and the related map was drawn on basis of yearly model of loss rate(by hail disaster),as follows: Sa=∑n i=1Si-∏n i=1Si=1-∏n i=1(1-Si).Result] In Anhui Province,high risk area by hail concentrates in northeast regions and mountainous regions in western Anhui,and lower risk area is distributed in middle and down streams of Yangtze River and mountainous area in southern Anhui.Conclusion] The research explored evaluation methods on hail risks based on limited information,providing references for risk evaluation on hail disaster in other regions.