近20年湖北省水稻产量变动及其原因分析

目的]分析1990～2009年湖北省水稻产量变动及其原因,以期找到水稻持续稳产高产的技术途径。方法]采用湖北省农业基本统计资料,结合相关气象资料和生产农情分析资料等,对湖北省1990～2009年的水稻及其不同季节类型的总产、单产、播种面积等变动特征及其原因进行了概括性分析。结果]湖北近20年水稻总产整体呈下降趋势,且各年份波动起伏较大,近期总体回归平稳。水稻单产整体上有所上升,但增长幅度较小,其中中稻呈上升趋势而早、晚稻平稳下降;不同年际间单产出现了一定的波动,以早稻波动最大,中稻部分年份波动大但总体较稳定,晚稻波动较小。自20世纪90年代末开始,在总播种面积逐渐减少的条件下,双季稻面积逐渐减少而中稻面积逐渐上升,近年渐趋于稳定。总产下降的主要原因是种植面积的减少;而单产的变化与波动则主要受制于气候、技术水平和社会因素;种植面积的总体变化主要受作物的比较经济效益、国家政策和耕地流失等因素的影响,不同季节类型水稻面积的变动可能与栽培风险、劳力和国家政策相关。结论]稳定种植面积是确保湖北水稻总产稳定的首要措施,加强农业设施建设、培育高产、多抗品种和研究抗灾栽培技术是减少产量年际间波动的重要途径。

Analysis on Fluctuation in Production and Yield of Rice and Its Causes in Hubei Province in Recent 20 Years

Objective] The aim was to analyze the fluctuation in production and yield of rice and its causes in Hubei Province in recent 20 years,to find the technological approaches for stable and high output of rice continuously.Methods] Using agricultural basic statistical data in Hubei Province,and combining with related meteorological data and production agricultural condition analysis data,characteristics of the changes of rice and its total production,per unit yield and sowing area of different seasons during 1990-2009 and their causes were analyzed generally.Result] In recent 20 years,total production of rice in Hubei decreased greatly with violent fluctuation and has just returned to a steady state in the recent years.On the other hand,rice yield per unit area showed a slightly increase over the same period,the mid-seasonal rice has been increased,while the early-seasonal rice and the late-seasonal rice decreased.The early-seasonal rice has been fluctuated more and with greater ranges than the mid-seasonal rice and the late-seasonal rice.Rice area sharply decreased from the end of 1990s,at the same time,the area of the early-seasonal rice and the late-seasonal rice decreased,on the contrary,the mid-seasonal rice increased its area,until a steady balance in area between mid-seasonal rice and early-and-late-seasonal rice in recent years.Rice production decrease is parallel to the decrease in rice area,while the yield fluctuation is due to climatic factors,rice growing techniques and social factors.The reason for sharp decrease in rice area is likely to be in a down of comparative benefit for rice growing,agricultural policies and land-use change;the changes of rice areas in different seasons are related to production security,effective labor and agricultural polices.Conclusion] Keeping a steady rice area is the crucial measure to steady rice production,while to mitigate yield fluctuation,infra-construction for rice lands,breeding for more productive varieties under stress conditions and developing stress-proof growing techniques are of importance.