中宁县气候变化及农业适应对策

利用宁夏中宁县1954～2010年的气象资料,运用统计学方法,对该地区的气温、降水的变化特征和发展趋势进行了分析。研究结果表明,57年来中宁县的年、各季平均气温呈整体逐渐上升趋势,年均温倾向率为0.29℃/10a,冬季最大,为0.47℃/10a,平均最高气温倾向率为0.32℃/10a,平均最低气温倾向率为0.34℃/10a;年、春、夏、秋降水量均呈减少的态势,其倾向率分别为-9.34、-3.02、-6.15、-1.32 mm/10a,冬季降水量呈微弱增加趋势,其倾向率为0.11 mm/10a。气候总的趋势是变暖、变干、向高温干旱化方向发展。由于气候的变化,气象灾害发生频率增大。同时,分析了气候变化对农业的影响及适应对策。

Climatic Changes and Agricultural Adaptation Countermeasures of Zhongning County

Based on the meteorological data of Zhongning County in Ningxia during 1954-2010 and using statistical methods,the variation characteristics and development trend of temperature and precipitation in the areas were analyzed.The results showed that annual and seasonal average temperature of Zhongning County showed increasing trend overall in recent 57 years,the tendency rate of annual average temperature was 0.28 ℃/10 a,the maximum was 0.47 ℃/10 a in winter,the tendency rate of average maximum temperature was 0.32 ℃/10 a,the tendency rate of average minimum temperature was 0.34 ℃/10 a;annual precipitation and precipitation of spring,summer and autumn all showed decreasing trend,and the tendency rate were-9.34,-3.02,-6.15 and-1.32 mm/10 a,respectively;precipitation of winter showed increasing trend weakly,and its tendency rate was 0.11 mm/10 a.The overall climatic trends were warm and dry,and gradually to the direction of high temperature and drought.Because the changes of climatic,the frequency of weather disasters increased,finally,the effect of climatic change on agriculture and adaptive strategies was analyzed.