基于生态足迹的土地生态承载力动态变化研究──以成都市为例

基于成都市1998～2008年统计数据,运用生态足迹法、生态承载力以及GIS空间分析法,从时空两个尺度对成都市这10年间的生态足迹与生态承载力进行了计算,并据此对2009～2019年生态足迹和生态承载力进行模拟分析。结果表明,1998～2008年成都市土地生态足迹和生态赤字数值逐年升高,区域差异显著;在其所辖的9区4市6县中,中心城区生态赤字一直处于较高水平,生态赤字增幅以双流县、崇州市、青羊区最为显著,且高生态赤字区域在空间上呈现扇状分布;成都市经济社会与自然生态系统之间处于非持续发展状态且生态足迹数值在空间分布不均。

Dynamic Changes of Land Ecological Carrying Capacity Based on the Ecological Footprint in Chengdu City

The ecological footprint of Chengdu City in the past ten years was calculated and analyzed from the spatial and temporal dimensions based on statistical data from 1998 to 2008,by the way of the ecological footprint method,ecological carrying capacity and the GIS spatial analysis method,regression analysis method.The ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity values from 2009 to 2019 in Chengdu City was predicted through calculation results in the past ten years.The results showed that the ecological footprint and ecological deficit of land use from 1998 to 2008 increased in Chengdu City.The ecological deficit of land use within the city center had always maintained at a high level in the past ten years,and the increase of ecological deficit was especially significant in Shuangliu County,Chongzhou City and Qingyang District,and the areas with high ecological deficit presented a fan-like distribution.In conclusion,the economy,society and natural ecosystem of Chengdu City are in an unsustainable state,and the value of ecological footprint is unevenly distributed in space.