| 犍为县城镇化发展趋势及其用地需求分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张秋琴,周宝同,孙婷,殷清慧.犍为县城镇化发展趋势及其用地需求分析[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(4):1136-1138. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张秋琴 周宝同 孙婷 殷清慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南大学地理科学学院,重庆,400175 |
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| 基金项目： | 西南师范大学校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了四川省犍为县的社会经济环境和小城镇发展现状,采用综合增长率预测法、时间序列预测法、灰色数列预测法对2010和2020年犍为县总人口和县城聚集人口进行预测,2010年和2020年犍为县总人口和积聚人口分别为559773、550773和123009、136356人;并以人口数据为基础,利用定性分析法、人口预测法、联合国法等方法预测了2010和2020年犍为县的城镇化水平,2010和2020年犍为县城镇化水平分别为37.74%、48.82%;最后推算出2010和2020年城镇建设所需用地分别为1636.8448hm2和2490.474hm2.以此为区域规划者和领导决策层提供依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 城镇化率 预测方法 人口 犍为县 |
| 文章编号： | 0517-6611（2007）04-01136-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-14 |
Developing Trend of Urbanization and Requirement Analysis of Land Use in Qianwei County |
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| ZHANG Qiu-qinet al.Developing Trend of Urbanization and Requirement Analysis of Land Use in Qianwei County[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2007,35(4):1136-1138. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Qiu-qin |
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| Institution: | Geography Sciences Department, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the comprehensive analysis of social economic environment and the present status of urbanization in Qianwei County in Sichuan province,the article forecasts the value of people in the year 2010 and 2020 by means of several methods.And take this as foundation,it also calculates the urbanization level in the year 2010 and 2020 with the methods of the qualitative analytic method,population forecasting method and the United Nations method.In the end,it reckons the specific value of city constructive land which needed in the year 2010 and 2020 to offer some bases for those who work on the regional plan and policy making. |
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| Keywords: | Rate of urbanization Forecasting methods Population Qianwei county |
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