甘肃省和政县近53年气候变化特征分析

目的]研究和政县近53年气候变化特征。方法]利用和政县1961—2013年气象资料，选取气温、降水及蒸发量作为研究对象，采用相关系数检验法、线性倾向估计法、5年滑动平均值法及年代际比较法，对和政县近53年的气候变化趋势进行了分析。结果]近53年和政县平均气温随时间变化呈明显的上升趋势，其中冬季增温速率最大，夏季和秋季接近，春季最小；降水量呈总体持平略减少趋势，其中春季和夏季降水量随时阃的线性变化趋势不明显，冬季呈增加趋势，秋季呈减少趋势，但增减幅度不大；蒸发量随时间变化呈明显的减少趋势，其中春季和夏季蒸发量减少幅度较大，秋季和冬季减少幅度较小，年蒸发量的减少主要是由春季和夏季蒸发量减少造成的。结论]在气温明显升高、降水量正常略少的情况下，蒸发量呈明显的减少趋势，干旱指数小幅下降，和政县干湿状况基本稳定，气候暖干化趋势不明显，气候变暖对农业生产影响不大。

Analysis of the Traits of Climatic Changes of Hezheng County in Latest 53 Years

Objective ] To study and analyze the climatic changes of Hezheng County during the past 53 years. Method] Drawing on the mete- orological materials of Hezheng County from the past 53 years, and taking temperature, precipitation and evaporation as the subjects, this paper studied and analyzed the climatic changes of Hezheng County during the past 53 years by using the correlation coefficient test, linear tendency es- timate method, 5 years moving average method and decadal comparison method. Result ] The average temperature rises obviously with time, and the rate shows highest in winters, lowest in springs and with the rest of them close to each other. Precipitations are stable generally, while decreases in autumns and rises in winters. Evaporation declines drastically with time go on, and changes obviously in springs and summers, with the yearly decrease resulted mainly from that of springs and autumns. ~ Conclusion1 When temperature rises greatly, and precipitations under av- erage level, evaporation declines dramatically, drought index declines. Therefore, the humid index in Hezheng County keep stable, the tendency of climatic warming and drying is not obvious, climatic warming affects industrial life not severely.