新疆塔城地区近54年气温变化特征及趋势分析

目的]分析塔城地区气温的变化特征。方法]利用塔城、和布克塞尔、托里、乌苏4个典型气象站点1955～2008年的月平均气温资料,运用小波分析、气候趋势系数等方法,对塔城地区气温多时间尺度特征及其未来的变化趋势进行了分析。结果]塔城地区多年平均气温为5.88℃,气温年际变化相对平稳,变差系数为0.130～0.265,极值比在1.73～3.79;气温序列分布呈现平顶峰型,年均气温相对较为离散。塔城地区气温存在5年、准9年和准14年的主周期;20世纪70年代处于冷期,平均气温仅为3.77℃,80年代是近54年来最暖年代,均温达8.10℃,90年代以来,相较80年代,塔城地区气温有所下降,但仍高于70年代,预计未来气温仍将会有所升高。塔城地区各区域年及四季平均气温均呈显著升高趋势,冬季升温最明显,幅度达1.15～2.05℃/10a,夏季升温速率最小为0.16～0.45℃/10a,年均气温变化速率为0.40～0.78℃/10a。结论]塔城地区的气温变化对气侯变暖呈现正响应趋势。

The Research of Air Temperature Variation Characteristics and Trend in Tacheng Prefecture in Xinjiang Province during 1954-2008

Objective]The aim was to analyze the changes characteristics of temperature in Tacheng.Method]By dint of monthly average temperature from 1955 to 2008 in four typical meteorology station,Tacheng,Hebukesaier,Tuoli and Wusu,the temperature multi-temporal scale characteristics and changes trend in future in Tacheng were expounded by small wave analysis and climate trend coefficient method.Result]The average temperature in so many years in Tacheng was 5.88 ℃.The annual changes of temperature were relatively stable.The coefficient of changes were between 0.130-0.265.The extreme value was between 1.73-3.79;the sequence distribution of temperature showed plat peak form and the annual average temperature was divergence.The temperature in Tacheng had 5 year,9 year and 14 year period.It was in cold period in 1970 when average temperature was only 3.77 ℃.The 1980s was the warmest age in recent 54 years,reaching 8.10 ℃.In recent 90s,and comparing with 80s,temperature in Tacheng was decreasing,but still higher than that in 70s.It was forecasted that the temperature in future would increase.The annual average temperature in each area and the average temperature in each season in Tacheng increased significantly,with a range of 1.15-2.05 ℃/10a.The smallest temperature increase speed in summer was 0.16-0.45 ℃/10a.The annual average temperature changes speed was 0.40-0.78 ℃/10a.Conclusion]The temperature changes in Tacheng had positive corresponding trend toward the climate warming.