灰色-马尔柯夫链预测棉花产量(单产)

灰色预测和马尔柯夫链预测方法都可用于时序问题的预测,在农作物产量预报中,2种方法各有局限性,单独使用预测准确率都不高,特别是对时序波动较大的棉花产量预测,二者的局限性表现更为明显.笔者将2种方法结合起来使用,建立了宿州市棉花产量(单产)的预测模型,在实际应用中,取得了较为满意的效果,历史拟合率小于4.5%,1999、2000年试报准确率分别达97.8%和96.9%.

Cotton Yield Prediction by the Model of Grey-Marikefu Clain Prediction

The method of Grey prediction and Marikefu Clain prediction may be used for the prediction in time order, but there was a limitation of these two models used for the prediction of crop yield, especially for cotton crop which growth change in time order was big. Thus, the combination of two models was used in the prediction of cotton yield, and much better result in practice had been obtained. The matching rate in history was less 4.5% and accurate rates of the prediction were 97.8% and 96.9% in 1999 and 2000 respectively.