浙江省耕地资源变化与粮食安全效应研究

利用浙江省30年的耕地统计数据和粮食产量统计数据,揭示了浙江省耕地面积变化的总体特征和耕地变化对粮食安全的影响。研究结果表明,1978～2007年浙江省耕地面积、粮食总产量和人均粮食产量均呈下降趋势。这表明此期间粮食供需差距越来越大。通过多元统计回归分析发现,粮食总产量在耕地面积不断减少的驱动下,随之下降,并且下降幅度快于耕地面积的减少率。在此基础上提出降低耕地压力、保证粮食生产安全、促进可持续发展的对策。

Study Farmland Resources Change and Grain Security in Zhejiang Province

By dint of statistics of 30 years cultivated land and crops output in Zhejiang Province,the general characteristics of cultivated land and cultivated land change on food safety influence were revealed.The results of the study indicated that: cultivated land area,total grain output,and the grain yield per capita of Zhejiang province were decreasing during in 1978-2007.This suggested that the supply and demand of food gap widened in this period.Through the multivariate statistical regression analysis found that: total grain output declines as cultivated land decreased,and declined faster than arable land.The countermeasures were put forward based on that to reduce pressure,to ensure proposed cultivated grain production safety,and to promote sustainable development.