气候变化下宁夏引黄灌区玉米产量及其构成因素的预估

目的]定量化估算未来气候变化情景下宁夏引黄灌区玉米产量变化趋势。方法]利用区域气候模式输出的未来90年（2010～2100年）宁夏25 km×25 km网格的逐日温度、降水、辐射等资料,采用校正的CERES-Maize模型对宁夏21世纪的玉米产量状况进行研究。结果]随着气候变暖,在未来气候情景下,采用目前玉米的适应性品种和最优生产管理措施,与基准年份BS（1961～1990年平均）相比,宁夏引黄灌区玉米产量在2020s和2050s表现为增产趋势,到2080s,随气温的进一步升高,则开始减产。玉米的产量构成因素穗粒数和穗粒重也表现相同的趋势。在2020s和2050s,B2情景下的玉米增产幅度大于A2情景,在2080s,B2情景下的玉米减产幅度小于A2情景。结论]随着气候变暖,宁夏引黄灌区玉米增产,随气温的进一步升高,则开始减产。

Prediction of Maize Yield and Its Component Factors in Yellow River Irrigation Area of Ningxia under Climate Change

Objective] The aim was to quantitatively predict the variation trend of maize yield in Yellow River irrigation area of Ningxia under future climate change scenarios.Method] Based on the data of daily temperature,precipitation and radiation in 25 km × 25 km grid in Ningxia from 2010 to 2100 obtained by regional climate model,maize yield in Yellow River irrigation area of Ningxia in the 21st century was studied by means of corrected CERES-Maize model.Result] With climate warming,maize yield in Yellow River irrigation area of Ningxia in 2020s and 2050s showed increase trend compared with base years(average in 1961-1990) when current adaptive maize variety and optimum production management measures were adopted,while maize yield went down in 2080s with the further increase of temperature.The grain number per spike and spike grain weight as the yield components of maize also showed the same trend with maize yield.In 2020s and 2050s,the increase of maize yield under B2 scenario was higher than that under A2 scenario,while the decrease of maize yield under B2 scenario was lower than that under A2 scenario in 2080s.Conclusion] With the increase of temperature,maize yield in Yellow River irrigation area of Ningxia went up firstly and then went down.