基于因子分析和熵权法的赣江源流域水资源承载力研究

以赣江源流域地区为例,运用因子分析法,从经济社会、生态环境、自然水资源和人口现状等16个指标中筛选出影响该区水资源承载力变化的4个主因子C1、C2、C3、C4,并通过熵权法对4个因子的得分赋权重,综合评价出2001～2009年该源流域水资源承载力的状况。结果表明,近10年来,该区域水资源承载力总体走向一个相对健康的方向。通过对赣江源流域水资源利用现状的分析,从水量分配、水权归属及产业结构优化等方面提出提高水资源承载能力的措施,以期为该区域经济社会发展规划和生态环境保护战略的制定,寻求可持续发展模式提供水资源承载信息的参考和保障。

Study on Water Resource Carrying Capacity of the Headstream of Ganjiang River' s Drainage area Based on Component Analysis and Entropy Weight Method

Taking the headstream of Ganjiang River's drainage area as an example,and by means of component analysis,4 extracted factors out of the 16 factors,which selected from the field of society,economy,population and natural water resource that assumed affecting the water resource carrying capacity of this area,were identified as major components which include C1,C2,C3 and C4.Then using the entropy value method,weights were respectively bestowed to the scores of the 4 components,to give a comprehensive analysis representing the water resource carrying capacity of the Ganjiang River's headstream from the year of 2001 to 2009.As indicated by the annual scores,the water resource carrying capacity in this area had been developing towards a healthy direction in recent years.In order to improve the water resource carrying capacity and give reference to policy making on sustainable development in the future,measures should be taken to govern the water right,distribute the water in a reasonable way and adjust the industry structure.