| 灰色灾变理论在东方红灌区旱涝灾情预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐建新,张权召,雷宏军,李晓瑜.灰色灾变理论在东方红灌区旱涝灾情预测中的应用[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(9):3486-3488. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐建新 张权召 雷宏军 李晓瑜 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北水利水电学院,河南郑州,450011;华北水利水电学院,河南郑州,450011;华北水利水电学院,河南郑州,450011;华北水利水电学院,河南郑州,450011 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用灰色系统理论中的灾变预测方法,对新密市东方红灌区的旱、涝灾数据进行灰色处理,以预测灾情发生的时间。结果表明,在2011和2022年将出现年降水量小于500 mm的干旱年,在2007和2018年将出现最大月降水量大于300 mm的涝情,2007年的预测结果与实际情况吻合。从理论和实例上说明了该方法适用对于灌区旱涝程度的预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 旱涝 灾变预测 新密市 |
| 文章编号： | 0517-6611(2008)09-03486-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008年2月21日 |
Application of Grey Calamity in the Forecast of Flooding and Drought Disaster in Dongfanghong Irrigation District |
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| XU Jian-xin.Application of Grey Calamity in the Forecast of Flooding and Drought Disaster in Dongfanghong Irrigation District[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2008,36(9):3486-3488. |
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| Authors: | XU Jian-xin |
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| Abstract: | The grey system theory is provided for the research of the incomplete information,the indefinition connotation and relation and so on.In this paper the drought and waterlog data in Dongfanghong irrigation district,Xinmi city was dealed with the grey calamity theory.The purpose was to forecast the occurring time of disaster further.The results showed that it would occur less than 500 mm annual precipitation of dry year in 2011 and 2022.And the flood would appear easily in 2007 and 2018 in which the biggest monthly precipitation was more than 300 mm.The result of forecast was coincident with practical condition in 2007.This method from the aspects of theory and practice was suitable for forecasting the case of drought and flood. |
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| Keywords: | Gray system Drought and flood Calamity forecast Xinmi city |
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