济南市粮食生产与耕地变化的分析及预测

采用最小人均耕地面积、耕地压力指数模型、回归分析方法和平滑预测法及Excel软件,在分析1986～2005年济南市耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上,对未来15年耕地、人口、粮食、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测。结果表明:1986年以来,虽然济南市人均耕地面积持续减少,但由于耕地生产率不断提高,粮食总产量和人均粮食产量总体上呈增加趋势;未来15年,最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数将进一步降低。可见,依靠增加投入和科技进步从而不断提高耕地生产率,是减轻耕地压力、保证粮食安全生产的根本途径。

Analysis and Prediction of Grain Security and Cropland Change in Jinan City

By using minimum cropland acreage per capita,cropland pressure index model,regression analysis,prognostic theory and Excel software,based on the analysis on the consideration of changes in cropland,population and grain output of Jinan between 1986 and 2005,the cropland,population,grain output,minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index were forecasted for the following 15 years.The result showed that although the cropland acreage per capita of Jinan kept on decreasing since 1986,the total grain yield and per capita grain yield presented an increment trend totally because of the cropland rate of production raised continuously.The minimum cropland acreage per capita and the cropland pressure index would be more lower in future 15 years.So depending on increasing devotion and making progress of science and technology to raise cropland rate of production continuously was the basic path of easing cropland pressure and promising the food safe production