农户采纳新技术的意愿及能力的影响因素分析——以关中地区为例

采用蒲城和户县4个村248户农户的调查数据,构建双层次Logit模型对农户采纳新技术的意愿及其影响因素和成功采纳新技术概率进行计量分析。结果表明:农户是否为户主、受教育程度、职业、农业贷款、家庭劳动力数量、信息传播渠道与采纳技术的意愿呈正相关关系;非农就业比例、是否为村干部与其采纳新技术的意愿呈负相关关系。在农户成功采纳新技术概率的模型中,职业、农业贷款、农户种植面积、性别和受教育程度与成功采纳新技术呈正相关关系;年龄、非农就业比例与成功采纳新技术呈负相关关系。其中,农村劳动力的大规模流动,通过影响家庭劳动力的数量、非农就业比例、受教育程度、性别、是否为村干部等因素对农村科技推广工作产生消极作用。根据实证研究结果,提出了提升农户采纳新技术能力的对策建议。

Analysis of the Impact Factors on the Peasants' Willingness and Ability to Adopt New Technologies

According to the investigation data of 248 peasants in four villages in Pucheng and Huxian,a double-level Logit model was constructed to analyze the impact factors on the peasants’ willingness to adopt new technologies and the probability of successfully adopted new technologies.As indicated by the results,the peasants’ willingness to adopt new technologies was positively correlated with their family status,education,vocation,agricultural loans,quantity of family labors and information dissemination channels,while negatively correlated with the proportion of non-agricultural employment and whether be village cadres or not.In view of the probability of successfully adopted new technologies,the successfully adopted new technologies were positively correlated with the peasants’ vocation,agricultural loans,planting area,genders and education,while negatively correlated with their ages and proportion of non-agricultural employment.Meanwhile,the large-scale flow of rural labors,through influencing the quantity of family labors,the proportion of non-agricultural employment,education,gender,whether be village cadres or not,etc.,produced negative impact on the popularization of science and technology in rural areas.Based on the results of example study,some suggestions were proposed to improve the peasants’ ability to adopt new technologies.