开封市棉花产量对气候变化的响应分析

目的]分析棉花产量对气候变化的响应和相关对策。方法]用数理统计学和模糊数学方法分析开封市气候变化趋势、光温水与棉花产量的关系,建立数据库,在Excel软件的支持下,利用二阶多项式将棉花产量和气温、降水量、日照时数分离成社会量和气候量进行研究。结果]开封市全市棉花生长期积温与棉花产量均上升,气候变暖是气象因子影响棉花产量的主要因素;降水量与棉花产量呈上升趋势,棉花生长期全市降水量大于棉花生长需要的水分;日照时数下降,棉花产量上升,表明气象因子中日照时数虽然对棉花的品质和产量影响最大,但不起决定作用。结论]掌握气候变化规律,采用有效措施积极应对,能减少因气象灾害造成的损失。

Response Analysis of Cotton Output to Climatic Change in Kaifeng

Objective] To analyze the response of cotton yield to climate change and countermeasures.Method]With mathematical statistics and fuzzy mathematics method to analyze the relationship between Kaifeng climatic change trend,light,temperature,water and cotton yield,create database.In the support of Excel software,using second order polynomial,cotton production,temperature,precipitation and sunshine time were separated into social quantity and climate of research.Result]Accumulative temperature and cotton output in cotton growth period were both increase in Kaifeng.Climate warming was main influencing factor for cotton output;rainfall and cotton output showed increase trend,rainfall was greater than needed water in cotton growth period;sunshine hours decreased,cotton production would increase.The results showed that although sunshine hours had greatest effect on the quality and yield of cotton,it's not the crucial role.Conclusion]Grasping climate change rule,adopting effective active measures,can reduce the loss caused by meteorological disasters.