安徽省油菜涝渍灾害孕灾环境特征及其指标研究

目的]研究安徽省油菜涝渍灾害的分级指标。方法]对安徽省油菜涝渍灾害孕灾环境特征、涝渍致灾因子与油菜产量的关系及安徽省油菜涝渍的发生几率进行分析,并利用涝渍判别模型确定不同区域油菜涝渍灾害分级指标。结果]油菜产量与降水量、降水日数呈负相关,与日照时数呈正相关。安徽省影响显著的油菜涝渍主要发生在4~5月,致灾因子是降水日数、日照时数和降水量。油菜产量形成关键期发生涝渍灾害,对减产起决定性作用。安徽省油菜发生轻度涝渍的几率为2.5年一遇,中度涝渍是4年一遇,重度涝渍是6年一遇,但不同区域有较大差异。结论]利用涝渍判别模型确定的油菜涝渍灾害分级指标评估涝渍等级的总体效果良好。

Study on Hazard Inducing Environmental Characters and Indices of Waterlogging Disaster of Rape in Anhui Province

Objective] The study was to research the grading index of waterlogging disaster of rape in Anhui Province.Method] The hazard inducing environmental character,the relationship between hazard factors of waterlogging and rape yield and the occurrence probability of waterlogging disaster of rape in Anhui Province were analyzed,and the grading indexes of waterlogging disaster of rape in different regions were determined with the discriminant model for waterlogging.Result] The rape yield had negative correlation with precipitation and precipitation days and had positive correlation with sunshine hours.The waterlogging of rape with obvious effect in Anhui Province mainly occurred in April-May and the hazard factors were precipitation days,sunshine hours and precipitation.The waterlogging disaster occurred in key stage of rape yield formation had a decisive role on yield reduction.The occurrence probability of slight waterlogging disaster in Anhui Province was 2.5 year frequency,that of middle waterlogging disaster was 4 year frequency,and that of severe waterlogging disaster was 6 year frequency,but it had bigger difference in different regions.Conclusion] The general effect of evaluation on waterlogging disaster grade by grading index of waterlogging disaster of rape determined by the discriminant model for waterlogging was better.