基于层次分析模型的乌伦古湖水环境承载力评价

结合乌伦古湖流域的自然环境、资源条件、社会经济状况以及所搜集的水资源资料，选取农民人均收入、水资源利用率、旅游收,,M／GDP、森林覆盖率等12个指标建立评价指标体系，运用层次分析的方法对乌伦古湖流域的水环境承载力进行了综合的评价。结果表明：①乌伦古湖流域的水环境承载力整体上处于一般水平，水资源的承载潜力已相对较小；②社会经济、环境质量、资源支撑对承栽力的贡献度分别为O．11、0．63、0．26；③在这12个指标中，以农民人均收入、旅游收入／GDP、湖泊水质承载力对乌伦古湖水环境承载力的影响最大，其贡献度分别占到0．3276、O．1575、0．1222。

Assessment of Water Environmental Carrying Capacity in Ulungur Lake Basin Based on analytic Hierarchy Process Model

Combined with natural environment, resource conditions, social economic status and water resource data of Ulungur Lake Basin, se- lecting 12 indexes of farmers income per capita, water resource utilization rate, tourism income/GDP, forest coverage, the evaluation index sys- tem was established, the AHP method was adopted to conduct comprehensive evaluation on water environment carrying capacity. The results were as follows ： ①The level of water environment capacity in Ulungur Lake Basin is so so, the potential capacity is ver~ small relatively ; ②The con- tributed proportion of socio-economic, environmental quality, support capacity of resources is 0. 11, 0.63, 0.26 respectively ; ③what＇ s more, per capita incomes of farmers, tourism revenue/GDP, the capacity of water quality have greatest influence on the water environment capacity a- mong all of the indicators, with their contributed proportion to the capacity is 0. 327 6, 0. 157 5, 0. 122 2 respectively.