| 我国城镇化水平和经济发展关系的协整分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘爱英,姚丽芬,李庆辰. 我国城镇化水平和经济发展关系的协整分析[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2011, 39(14): 8710-8712,8715 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘爱英 姚丽芬 李庆辰 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北经贸大学工商管理学院;河北经贸大学旅游学院;河北省科学院地理科学研究所; |
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| 摘 要： | 利用协整理论、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验理论,对我国城镇化水平和GDP之间的关系进行了实证研究,并对三次产业与城镇化水平之间关系进行了对比分析。结果表明,城镇化与国内生产总值、第一、二、三产业国内生产总值之间的相关系数分别为0.97、0.95、0.97、0.97,相关性很强;城镇化与经济发展之间是长期均衡关系,长期均衡中,城镇化每增加1%,可以促使国内生产总值增长4.82%;短期均衡中,如果均衡在第i期偏离了长期均衡,那么在第i＋1期,模型将会以-0.06的调整力度自动进行反向调整,使其向长期均衡状态方向移动;经济增长对城镇化为单向因果关系,第一、二产业与城镇化水平之间的关系同样如此,而第三产业与城镇化水平之间是双向因果关系。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济增长 城镇化 协整检验 误差修正模型 Granger因果关系 |
Cointegration Analysis on the Relation between Urbanization and Economic Growth in China |
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| LIU Ai-ying et al. Cointegration Analysis on the Relation between Urbanization and Economic Growth in China[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2011, 39(14): 8710-8712,8715 |
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| Authors: | LIU Ai-ying et al |
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| Affiliation: | LIU Ai-ying et al(School of Business Administration,Hebei University of Economics & Business,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050061) |
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| Abstract: | This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparative analysis to the relation between three industries and degree of urbanization,the related coeffecient is 0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97.And the result shows a long-term balance between these two factors,and the promoting effect to tertiary industry by urbanization is more obvious.Urbanization and economi... |
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| Keywords: | Economic growth Urbanization Cointegration test Error correction model |
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