加权马尔可夫链在泰安地区年降雨量预测方面的应用

依据1960~1990年泰安地区的年降雨量资料,采用均值-标准差分级法,对其进行状态分级,分为枯水年、偏枯年、平水年、偏丰年和丰水年5个状态,利用加权马尔可夫链建立年降雨量预测模型,针对其对极端降雨量年份预测不准的缺点,利用灰色系统理论进行极端降雨量年份预测,作为原模型的补充。结果表明,采用该方法预测的结果与实际情况相吻合,且34年后泰安地区将出现旱情。

Application of Weighted-markov Chain in Rainfall Prediction in Tai'an Area

Based on the annual precipitation data from 1960 to 1990 in Tai'an area,taking the means and standard deviation of information series as the classification standard of precipitation,the past 30 years were classified into five states: drought year,weak drought year,normal year,weak water logging year and water logging year.The weighted-markov chains model was adopted to establish the annual rainfall prediction model,which could be used as the supplement of the original model.The prediction results are satisf...