基于主成分分析的曲靖市生态安全评价研究

采用联合国环境规划署（UNEP）和经济合作发展组织（OECD）提出的PSR模型,以生态安全评价理论为基础,建立3个层次共29个指标的生态安全评价指标体系,并运用主成分分析法对2004-2008年曲靖市的生态安全现状进行分析和综合评价。结果显示,2004-2008年,压力指标呈逐年上升趋势,由2004年的-3.47上升到2008年的3.64,状态指标呈起伏式上升,2006年比2005年下降0.47个指数点,其余时间段均有上升;响应指标总体呈上升趋势,尤其是2005以来上升速度最快,最高上升率达131.72%;生态安全综合指标由2004年的-4.16上升到2008年的4.51,2006年下降至研究时段内最低值-4.44,2006~2007年上升最快,为154.05%,总体呈上升-下降-上升的波动趋势,各年生态安全综合得分排序为2006年〈2004年〈2005年〈2007年〈2008年。

Principal Component Analysis Based on Ecological Security Evaluation of Qujing city

This paper used the "PSR model" put forward by UN environment programmer(UNEP)and the organization for economic co-operation and development(OECD),based on the theory of ecological security assessment,then,established three levels of 29 ecological safety evaluation index system and used the principal component analysis of Qujing City from 2004 to 2008 to analyze the situation and ecological security evaluation.Results showed that the pressure indicators increased year by year,from-3.47 in 2004 to 3.64 in 2008.The status indicator was increasing in rolling-type and it was down 0.47 index points in 2006 than in 2005.The rest periods were raising and the response index overall showed ascendant trend,especially since 2005 it had the fastest-growing,the highest rate reached 131.72%.The comprehensive index of ecological security was going up from-4.16 in 2004 to 4.51 in 2008;it also had the lowest value-4.44 in 2006.Meanwhile,the fastest rising year was 2006 to 2007,that was,154.05%,which presented overall "rise-fall-increased" fluctuation.The sequence of ecological security comprehensive score in each year was 2006<2004<2005<2007<2008.