邢台地区近50年初终霜日及无霜期变化分析

采用气候统计学方法,对邢台地区1961～2010年初、终霜日及无霜期气候特征进行了分析。结果表明,初霜日平均值为10月22日,时间序列绝对变率为4.68 d,线性趋势为0.76 d/10 a,呈逐渐推迟趋势;终霜日平均值为3月27日,时间序列绝对变率为8.35 d,线性趋势为-0.29 d/10 a,呈逐渐提前趋势;而无霜期平均值为209 d,绝对变率为8.12 d,线性趋势为1.10 d/10 a,呈平稳增长趋势。初霜日、终霜日及无霜期的稳定变化趋势,对于霜冻预报具有重要的参考价值和指导作用。

The Mutative Analysis of First and Latest Frost Days as well as Frostless Period in Xingtai in Recent 50 Years

Climatological statistics method was adopted to analyze climate characteristics of first and latest frost days as well as frostless period in Xingtai regions during 1961-2010.The results indicated that the average value of first frost day was October 22 and the absolute variability of time series was 4.68 days,the linear trend was 0.76 d/10 a,thus,the first frost day showed the delaying trend;for latest frost days,the average value was March 27 and the absolute variability of time series was 8.35 days,the linear trend was-0.29 d/10 a,thus,the latest frost days showed advanced trend;for frostless period,the average value was 209 d and the absolute variability of time series was 8.12 days,the linear trend was 1.10 d/10 a,thus,the frostless period showed a steady growth trend;in addition,the stable variation trend of first and latest frost days as well as frostless period had significant reference value and guidance function for frost forecast.