1960—2009年新民市热量资源趋势变化对农业的影响

在充分掌握热量资源的情况下，应发挥优势，调整农业结构，增加农业经济收入。应用常规统计方法，在Excel程序支持下分析1960～2009年新民市热量资源。结果表明：1960～2009年，新民市年平均气温趋势升高1．9℃，气候跃变点在1988年，跃变前后气温平均升高1．2℃；冬半年是气温趋势升高的主体，相当于夏半年的1倍。气温的升高使总热量趋势增加318．0℃，1990年之后平均增加约200．0℃。热量资源在一茬有余两莅不足的状态下，可考虑利用早春和晚秋的热量资源在设施农业中发挥优势。

Effects of the Trend Changes of Heat Resources in Xinmin City on Agriculture during 1960-2009

In the case of full grasp of heat resources, the advantages should be played to adjust the agricultural structure and increase agricultural income. Using conventional statistical methods,the heat resources in Xinmin during 1960 -2009 were analyzed under the support of Excel procedures. The results showed that the annual mean temperature trend increased 1.9 ℃ during 1960 ~ 2009. The jump points were in 1988,the jump of the average temperature increased around 1. 2 ℃. The winter months were the main trend of the temperature rise, equivalent to six months in smnmer doubled. The elevated temperatures increased the total trend of the heat 318 ℃ ,the average increase after 1990 was about 200.0℃. Un- der the state of heat resources in the crop of more than one and less than two,the use of heat resources in the early spring and late autumn can be used to play the advantages in facility agriculture.