商丘地区近47年气温变化特征分析

根据商丘市所辖8个代表站1961~2007年47年的逐月地面月平均气温资料,采用线性回归分析、滑动平均、累积距平等方法对气温变化趋势进行诊断分析,用滑动t-检验法、Yamamoto法、Mann-Kendall法等统计方法,对平均气温时间序列可能的突变点分别进行了检测。结果表明,近47年商丘年平均气温变化率为0.078℃/10年;其间经历了20世纪60~70年代的增暖期,80年代的气温变冷期,90年代中后期又进入了一个较强的增暖期;春、秋、冬3个季节的平均气温整体上都呈上升趋势,冬季上升幅度较大,气温变化率为0.382℃/10年,明显高于春、秋两季的0.084、0.049℃/10年;而夏季的平均温度整体上呈下降趋势,气温变化率为-0.169℃/10年。3种方法检测结果综合来看,四季突变时间不同,1993年是年平均气温由冷转为增暖的突变点,可信度达99%。

Characteristics and Analysis of Air Temperature Variation of Shangqiu Area in Recent 47 Years

With monthly mean temperature records of 8 stations in Shangqiu from 1961 to 2007,the variation of air temperature was analyzed by applying methods of linear regression analysis,moving average and accumulated variance analysis.By using methods of slide t-test method,Yamamoto and Mann-Kendall,the abrupt change points of air temperature were detected.The results showed that the variation trend of temperature was 0.078 ℃/10 a in recent 47 years.The warming period was from 1960's to 1970's,while the cold period was 1980's and there was an obviously increasing tendency after the mid 1990s.The average temperature of spring,autumn and winter appeared to be ascending and the winter's amplitude of raised temperature was larger than that in other seasons.The variation of winter temperature was 0.382 ℃/10 a,the spring's was 0.084 ℃/10 a and the autumn's was 0.049 ℃/10 a.The air temperature of summer declined and the variation was-0.169 ℃/10 a.The results of three detected methods indicated that the abrupt change point of four seasons were different and the point of annual mean temperature from cold to warm was the year of 1993 with the credibility being more than 99%.