气候变化对青海小叶杨物候期的影响评估

利用青海9站10～25年的小叶杨物候和同期的光热水资料,通过SPSS的相关分析、偏相关分析和回归方法进行统计分析。研究表明,气候变化是影响青海小叶杨物候期的主要环境因子,冬春季气温升高、界限温度提早是使得小叶杨物候开始期提前的主要相同影响因子,而降水和日照时数各站区有明显的差异,但小叶杨生长期间各地光热水的共同作用使小叶杨物候结束期均推迟。近39年青海日照时数、温度、降水变化使小叶杨物候现象及其生长期延长具有明显的区域性,各站物候期现象比正常年份范围出现提早10 d、推迟10 d的气候指标因地区而不同。

Effects of Climate Variation on Phenophase of Qinghai Populus simonii

By using 10 -25 year Populus simonii phenophase from 9 stations of Qinghai and light, thermal, water data, statistic analysis was carried out through SPSS correlation analysis, partial correlation and regression analysis, the results showed that climate variation is the main environmental factor for Populus simonii phenophase. The increasing of winter and spring temperature, earlier of boundary temperature are main influencing factors for advancing of Populus simonii phenophase, precipitation and sunshine hours have obvious difference among stations, the combined action of light, thermal and water make the end of Populus simonii phenology period delay. In recent 39 years in Qinghai, sun shine hours, temperature, rainfall change make Populus simonii phenophase period prolonged with obvious regional characteristics, the meteor ological indicators for influencing phenology period varied among stations.