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近26年合肥市气温降水变化特征及突变分析
引用本文:刘然,杨东,郭红霞.近26年合肥市气温降水变化特征及突变分析[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(28):13697-13699.
作者姓名:刘然  杨东  郭红霞
作者单位:西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州,730070
基金项目:西北师范大学科研骨干和青年基金 
摘    要:利用合肥市的气温和降水资料,运用气候趋势系数、一元回归分析法和5年趋势滑动,进行了气候变化的趋势分析,结果表明:合肥市气温变化趋势与全球气温变暖变化趋势基本一致;四季气温均呈上升趋势,春季增温幅度最大;冬季降水量呈增加趋势,春、夏、秋季呈下降趋势,春季降水量下降趋势最明显。在此基础上,利用气候要素累积距平曲线和检验信噪比(S/N)进行气候突变分析,结果表明:气温突变比降水突变明显,气温在1993年发生突变,降水量在1991年发生突变,在2001年发生转折但未检验出突变。

关 键 词:气温  降水  变化趋势  气候突变

Analysis on the Variation Characters of Temperature and Precipitation and Abrupt Change in Hefei in Recent 26 Years
LIU Ran et al.Analysis on the Variation Characters of Temperature and Precipitation and Abrupt Change in Hefei in Recent 26 Years[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2009,37(28):13697-13699.
Authors:LIU Ran
Institution:LIU Ran et al(College of Geography , Environment Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou,Gansu 730070)
Abstract:Utilizing the temperature and precipitation data of Hefei city,climate trend coefficient,simple regression analysis and 5-year sliding trend,the trend of climate change was analyzed.The results showed that temperature change trend of Hefei was basically the same as the global warming trend;seasonal temperature showed upward trend,the biggest temperature heat was spring;the winter precipitation was increasing, spring,summer and autumn were declining,the most obvious downward trend in precipitation appeared i...
Keywords:Temperature  Precipitation  Change trend  Abrupt change of climate  
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