未来世界的粮食供应——2050年前后我们如何养活自己?

至21世纪中叶,世界足以养活它的人民吗?若然,情况又将如何?文章首先评述了有关全球人口增长的估计,到2050年世界人口将增加近三分之一,约90亿。然后分析了气候变化对农业的可能影响,总体来说,大的农业用地将成为非生产用地,而其他许多土地的产量将会减少。很多地方,由于日益匮乏的水源、化肥、燃料和劳动力,生产足够的粮食以保障供应也许将变得更加困难。粮食短缺日益加剧,最主要的解决方案似乎是广泛发展的转基因作物品种、动物和鱼类。还有其他一些策略,可能有助减轻生产成本的压力,促进农业可持续发展。文章最后提出,促进互联网资料库建设,共享古今成功的策略信息。学者、研究人员、政府官员、农业企业和农民都可成为数据库的提供者或使用者,请他们参与评论。

The Future of the World's Food Supply——How Will We Feed Ourselves Around 2050

Will the world be able to feed its people adequately by the middle of the 21st century; and if so, how？ The article begins by reviewing estimates of global demographic growth which suggest that by 2050 the world＇s population will have increased by nearly onethird to around 9 billion. It then examines the probable, effects of climate change on agriculture, arguing that, on balance, a considerable amount of agricultural land will become unproductive while the productivity of much other land will be reduced. Difficulties of producing adequate food supplies will be further agravated in many places by increasing scarcity of water, fertilizers, fuel and perhaps labour. The principal solution to growing food shortages seems to be the widespread development of transgenic （or genetically modified） varieties of crops, anilmals and fish. A number of other strategies are suggested which may reduce the pressure on supplies of inputs and make agriculture more sustainable. The article concludes by urging the creation of an internet data bank which will encourage the sharing of information about successful strategies, past and present. Scholars, researchers, bureaucrats, agro-businesses and farmers could all be contributors and users of the data bank.