河北省棉花产量灰色理论分析与预测

为了解河北省棉花产量变化的规律,明确今后育种工作的目标和前景,利用灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)模型,依据1980～2003年河北省审定的棉花品种的区域试验产量,建立预测模型为:^X(1)(k 1)=38965.718385e0.024221-37990.718385。并在生产因素保持相对稳定的条件下,据此模型对河北省棉花生产进行规划性预测,为生产的规划与决策提供科学信息。明确棉花育种的总体目标是优化品种和品质结构,保持适纺中支纱品种选育的优势,重视发展目前市场短缺的长绒和中短绒陆地棉新品种选育。

Analyzes and Forecast of Cotton Yield of Hebei Province with Grey System

In order to understand ordinary change rule of cotton yield in Hebei province and make clear of the aim and prospect of breeding in the future,the model of GM(1,1) of grey system and analysis of regional experiment yield of cotton varieties which were approved by Hebei variety committee were used to establish the predictable model.A predictable model of the occurring of cotton''s develop:^X(1)(k 1) =38965.718385e 0.024221-37990.718385 was formulated.The model was used to predict the cotton yield in Hebei province under the conditions of relative stability and to provide scientific information for production planning and decision making.The overall aim of cotton breeding was to optimize structure of variety and quality,keep advantage of seed selecting medium count yarn variety and pay attention to seed selection of long-staple and short-staple upland cotton which were shorten in market.