基于省级面板数据的农产品对外贸易的技术溢出效应分析

【目的/意义】中国自加入WTO以来,农产品对外贸易规模不断扩大,不仅拉动了经济增长,更对各地区的技术进步产生了影响。分析农产品对外贸易的技术溢出效应,以期对政府制定政策推动农业技术进步、优化农业产业结构以及拉动农业生产率有所帮助。【方法/过程】文章采用DEA-Malmquist指数法对各省农业全要素生产率进行测算,选取2002-2016年省级面板数据,采用固定效应模型(FE)进出口贸易的技术溢出效应进行分析。【结果/结论】研究结果表明:农产品贸易对于农业全要素生产率影响显著为正,说明农产品对外贸易产生了正向的技术溢出。此外,人力资本、农业科研经费投入、公路基础设施及农业产值占比对全要素生产率具有正向影响,农作物受灾比例对全要素生产率的影响为负。据此提出应扩大农产品贸易规模;加大人力资本投入;增加对公路基础设施和农业科研经费的投入;加大农业救灾资金款项投入;实现农业的可持续化发展的政策建议。

Analysis on Technology Spillover Effects of Foreign Trade in Agricultural Products Based on Provincial Panel Data

【Objective/Meaning】Since China’s entry into the WTO,the scale of foreign trade in agricultural products has been continuously expanded,which has not only boosted the economic growth,but also affected the technological progress in various regions.The technology spillover effects of foreign trade in agricultural products were analyzed in this paper,with a view to helping the government to formulate policies to promote the progress of agricultural technology,optimize the structure of agricultural industry and boost the growth of agricultural productivity.【Methods/Procedures】By using the DEA-Malmquist index method,the agricultural total factor productivity of each province was measured,and then the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2016 was selected to analyze the technology spillover effect of import and export trade in agricultural products by using the fixed effect model.【Results/Conclusions】The results of the study showed that the impact of agricultural products trade on the total factor productivity was significantly positive,indicating that the foreign trade of agricultural products produced positive technology spillovers.In addition,human capital,investment in agricultural research funds,road infrastructure and agricultural production value to the total factor productivity had a positive impact,while the proportion of crop disaster had a negative impact on the total factor productivity.Therefore,the countermeasures were put forward including expanding the trade scale of agricultural products,increasing the investment of human capital,increasing the investment of road infrastructure and agricultural research funds,increasing the investment of agricultural disaster relief funds,thus to realize the sustainable development of agriculture.