土地利用变化及驱动因素分析——以新疆乌苏市为例

以新疆乌苏市为例,对该区土地利用变化及驱动因素进行分析。乌苏市1996~2006年间,土地利用数量变化较快。其中,耕地年变化率为6.31%,城镇及工矿用地年变化率为4.08%,林地年变化率为2.88%,交通用地年变化率为21.14%,园地面积年变化率为-8.03%,未利用土地年变化率为-3.29%,牧草地年变化率为1.05%。土地利用结构发生了较大变化,园地、水利设施用地和未利用土地占比分别减少了0.01%、0.24%和11.02%,其它用地类型占比均有增加。林地和牧草地占比增长较大,分别为2.83%和4.79%。对各项指标进行了相关分析、主成分分析和回归分析,对社会经济和自然驱动力的11个指标综合分析和对比,确定研究区土地利用变化的主要驱动因子,阐明干旱区绿洲土地利用变化的驱动机制,提出了该区土地可持续利用总体发展模式和分区调控方向与措施。

Analysis on Change of Land Use and Its Driving Factors——A Case Study in Wusu of Xinjiang

In this paper,a case study is carried out in Wusu of Xinjiang so as to reveal the land use change and it`s driving factors.During the period from 1996 to 2006,the land use change in Wusu was very rapid,in which the annual change rates of the lands used for farmlands,construction,forestlands,lands used for traffic construction,area of garden plots,unused lands and grasslands were 6.31%,4.08%,2.88%,21.14%,-8.03%,-3.29 %and 1.05% respectively.The land use structure was changed greatly.The proportions of water conservancy lands,area of garden plotsand unused lands were decreased by 0.24,0.01 and 11.02 % respectively,but that of other land use types were increased,especially that of forestlands and grasslands were increased by 2.83 and 4.79% respectively.In the text,all kinds of indexes were correlatively analyzed,the main driving factor of change of land use in the study area were indentified,the driving mechnism of oasis land use change in drought region was expounded.The overall development modes,regional regulation directions and measures are put forward for the sustainable landuse in the study area.