新疆城镇居民肉类多元化消费与价格的关联度分析

【目的】研究新疆城镇居民肉类消费结构特征,分析收入与消费支出、消费量之间的关系,以及价格变化对肉类消费量、消费支出的影响,分析肉类消费趋势,为从需求侧多因素研究新疆城镇居民肉类消费结构特征以及消费需求趋势提供科学依据。【方法】采集新疆城镇居民对牛、羊、猪、禽肉类消费的相关数据作为材料,采用双对数线性支出模型和LA/AIDS模型,测算新疆城镇居民肉类消费支出的收入弹性、消费的支出弹性、自价格弹性、交叉价格弹性、需求收入弹性,分析肉类消费的基本特征和变化规律。【结果】1995~2018年的23年间,牛羊肉消费量占比提高了4.12个百分点,消费支出占比上升了7.33个百分点。牛肉替代羊肉消费的趋势明显,牛肉消费量占肉类总消费量的比重增加了9.29个百分点,消费支出占肉类总消费支出的比重增加了18.91个百分点。而羊肉消费量占肉类总消费量的比下降了6.07个百分点,消费支出占肉类总消费支出的比重下降了11.56个百分点。猪肉作为辅助性消费的性质明显,消费量占比基本稳定在20%,消费支出占比在15%左右。【结论】新疆城镇居民肉类消费稳步增长,收入与肉类消费支出和需求表现出正相关,消费交叉价格弹性、自价格弹性和支出弹性反映出肉类消费的基本特征和内在关联性。新疆城镇居民肉类消费结构以牛羊肉为主。市场肉类消费变化受价格弹性影响明显,牛、羊、猪、禽肉类之间价格关联性强。羊肉在肉类消费中的重要性弱化,显现出多元化的消费格局,收入变化对肉类消费支出影响程度的差异性不显著。

Correlation Analysis of Diversified Meat Consumption and Price of Urban Residents in Xinjiang

【Objective】 To study the characteristics of the meat consumption structure of urban residents in Xinjiang, analyze the relationship between income, consumption expenditure, consumption, the influence of price changes on meat consumption and consumption expenditure, and meat consumption trends in the hope of providing a scientific basis for studying these issues from the multi-factor of demand side.【Method】 The relevant data of the meat consumption of cattle, sheep, pigs and poultry were collected and double logarithmic linear expenditure model and LA/AIDS model were applied to measure and calculate the income elasticity, expenditure elasticity, self-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity and demand income elasticity of Xinjiang urban residents' meat consumption expenditure aiming at analyzing the basic characteristics and changing rules of meat consumption.【Result】 During the 23 years from 1995 to 2018, the beef and mutton consumption increased by 4.12%, while the consumption expenditure increased by 7.33%. In the meanwhile, the consumption trend of beef replacing mutton was obvious. The beef consumption in the total meat consumption increased by 9.29%, and the consumption expenditure in the total meat consumption increased by 18.91%. The mutton consumption in the total meat consumption decreased by 6.07%, and the consumption expenditure in the total meat consumption decreased by 11.56%. The nature of pork as an auxiliary consumption was obvious. The consumption proportion was basically stable at 20%, with the consumption expenditure accounting for about 15%.【Conclusion】 The consumption of meat among urban residents in Xinjiang is increasing steadily, and the income is positively correlated with the consumption expenditure and demand of meat. The consumption cross-price elasticity, self-price elasticity and expenditure elasticity reflect the basic characteristics and internal correlation of meat consumption. The meat consumption structure of urban residents in Xinjiang is dominated by beef and mutton. The changes of meat consumption in the market are significantly affected by price elasticity, and there is a strong price correlation among cattle, sheep, pigs, and poultry. The importance of mutton in meat consumption is weakening, displaying a diversified consumption pattern. The changes in income do not affect the meat consumption expenditure significantly.