中国大宗农产品国际竞争力的出口效应分析

【目的】大宗农产品是中国国际贸易中的基础性商品,研究其国际竞争力对出口的影响,为改善中国大宗农产品贸易条件提供理论依据。【方法】基于联合国贸易数据库2001~2018年相关贸易数据,综合运用国际市场占有率指数和恒定市场份额模型分析中国大宗农产品国际竞争力对出口的影响效应。【结果】2001~2018年中国大宗农产品国际竞争力MS指数由5.63%上升至6.93%,对出口增长的贡献率为33.05%,其中,糖及糖食、棉花及制品的MS指数分别由0.96%、11.22%上升至4.62%、28.12%,出口贡献率分别为33.77%和47.94%,谷物和油料产品的MS指数分别由3.10%、4.94%下降至0.94%、2.69%,出口贡献率分别为-859.52%、-14.81%。【结论】中国大宗农产品国际竞争力提升是出口增长的重要驱动因素,具体竞争力的出口效应高于整体竞争力;糖及糖食、棉花及制品国际竞争力提升的出口增长贡献率较大,而谷物和油料国际竞争力下降对其出口有显著阻碍作用。

Research on Export Effect of International Competitiveness of China's Bulk Agricultural Products

【Objective】 Bulk agricultural products are the basic commodities of China's international trade, this project aims to study the contribution of its international competitiveness to export, so as to provide theoretical basis for improving China's agricultural trade terms. 【Method】 Based on the relevant data from 2001 to 2018 in the United Nations comtrade database, this paper analyzes the impact of international competitiveness of China's bulk agricultural products on exports by using the market share index and the constant market share model. 【Result】 The international competitiveness MS index of China's bulk agricultural products increased from 5.63% to 6.93%, the contribution rate to export growth is 33.05%. MS index of sugar and cotton increased from 0.96%, 11.22% to 4.62%, 28.12%, the contribution rates to export growth is 33.77% and 47.94%, respectively, MS index of cereals and oilseeds decreased from 3.10%, 4.94% to 0.94%, 2.69% in 2001 to 2018, the contribution rate are -859.52%, -14.81%.【Conclusion】The improvement of international competitiveness of China's bulk agricultural products is an important driving factor for export growth, export effect of comprehensive competitiveness is higher than specific competitiveness effect, the competitiveness of sugar, cotton and other specific varieties contributes greatly to the export growth, while the decline in the international competitiveness of grain and oil crops hinders its export.