近60a来玛纳斯河流域气候变化趋势及突变分析

目的]气候变化是21世纪人类面临的最大环境问题之一.其中以干旱区较为明显,而新疆是最为突出的地区之一.方法]以中亚典型冰川融化区玛纳斯河流域为例,运用线性回归及Mann - Kendall趋势检验方法分析其1956 ～2010年气温及降水资料的变化趋势和突变点.结果]近60a来玛纳斯河流域经历了一个增温趋湿的过程,增加幅度分别在0.44℃/10 a和12.6mm/10 a；春、夏、秋、冬四季增温幅度分别为0.50、0.21、0.52和0.52℃/10 a,降水倾向率分别为2.44、3.22、2.76和3.64 mm/10 a；趋势突变检验分析表明:流域内年平均气温在1980s明显的增温过程,突变点在1989年,四季突变点分别发生在1995、1986、1996和1987年.年降水量突变也发生在1980s后期,四季降水量M-K检验表明秋冬突变点分别发生在1983和1997年,春夏没有发生突变.结论]研究结果对全面认识及预测干旱区年际及季节气候变化有一定借鉴意义.

Analysis of the Climate Change and Abrupt Change in the Manas River Drainage Basin in Recent 60 Years

Objective and Method]Global climate change is the gravest environmental problem that human has ever faced.The climate change in China is similar to global change but is most significant in its arid land.Xinjiang is among the most eminent arid region.In this study,the Manas River Valley,which is the typical inland river formed from glacier - melted water in the Central Asia,was chosen as the sample.The temperature and precipitation change trend from 1956 to 2010 were analyzed by using linear regression anal...