55年来策勒绿洲耕地变化及驱动力研究

耕地资源的变化是影响区域可持续发展的关键,对耕地变化驱动力的研究有助于宏观调控耕地动态。研究利用策勒绿洲1949~2004年长序列耕地统计以及相关社会经济资料,分析了策勒绿洲55年来耕地变化总体趋势,并应用因子分析方法全面分析了影响耕地变化的经济、社会等主要因素,对策勒绿洲55年的耕地面积变化的驱动力进行了研究。结果表明:绿洲耕地总面积和人均面积持续减少,而经济发展、社会系统压力、农业科技进步是引起策勒绿洲耕地面积变化的主要驱动力。

Study on Change of the Cultivated Land Use and Its Driving Forces in Cete Oasis in the Past 55 Years

Change of cultivated land is the key factor which affects regional sustainable development, so the research of the driving forces is useful to control dynamic change of cultivated land. Based on the statistical and correlative social economic survey data at provincial and county level , the general trend of cultivated land change in Cele oasis during the last 55 years was discussed in this paper. Factors affeeting change of cultivated land from 1949 to 2004 in Cele oasis and the dynamic changing process of the cultivated land were analyzed with the method of factor analysis. Results showed that the total area of oasis cultivated land and land area per capita had been reduced , while the economic development , pressure form social system and the progress of agricultural science and technology were main driving forces, which caused the change of cultivated land area.