基于灰色残差修正模型的食品安全监测预警分析方法研究

食品安全监测预警分析是我国食品安全风险监测计划的重要组成部分。以食品安全监测数据为研究对象,采用灰色系统及马尔可夫过程理论,建立二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型,实现对食品安全监测的预警分析。以《中国统计年鉴》1995-2006年白酒产品国家监督抽查数据构建灰色残差修正模型,对2007年数据进行预测,预测值为82.74%,与实际值82.04%相当接近。研究表明,该分析方法应用于食品安全预警,可有效对食品安全态势进行预测,为食品安全快速预警提供依据。

Study on the Prediction of Food Safety Monitoring Based on GM(1,1) Modified Residual Error Model

Data analysis to food safety warning plays an important role in the food safety risk monitoring plan.Based on the food safety monitoring data,a GM(1,1) modified residual error model by the grey system theory and Markov process theory was constructed.In order to test the forecasting effect,the GM(1,1)modified residual error model based on the data of wine quality spot were checked between the year of 1995 and 2006.The prediction result of the year 2007 was 82.74%,which was very closed to the actual value 82.04%.The results showed that the GM(1,1) modified residual error model was valid in forecasting the state of food safety,which provided reference for rapide alert of food safety.