大连市雷暴气候统计特征及趋势分析

利用大连国家基准气候观测站1951—2010年的逐日雷暴资料,通过气候倾向率、经验频率法等分析方法,揭示大连市雷暴气候变化特征。结果表明,大连市年雷暴日数总体呈逐年增加趋势,近60年来增加了约3 d;夏季雷暴出现最多,其次为秋季,冬季发生概率很小;雷暴初日呈下降趋势,气候倾向率为-3.482 d/10年,60年来提前了近21 d;雷暴终日呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为3.55 d/10年,60年来推迟了近22 d。4月雷暴初日发生的保证率迅速上升,雷暴终日在10月下旬至11月上旬上升较快,雷暴初、终日之间持续时间总体上呈增加趋势,气候倾向率为7.032 d/10年,近60年来延长了约42 d。

Analysis on Statistics Characteristics and Trend of Thunderstorm in Dalian City

Based on thunderstorm data from 1951 to 2010 in Dalian city,the characteristics of thunderstorm were analyzed by climate trend method and guarantee rate.The results showed that thunderstorm day increased three days in recent 60 years.Thunderstorm day in summer was more than in autumn,and less in spring and winter.The first thunderstorm day was ahead 21 days and the last thunderstorm day delayed 22 days in the recent 60 years.The guarantee rate of the first thunderstorm day in April increased rapidly and that of the last thunderstorm day increased rapidly in the last ten-day period of october and the first ten-day period of november.The duration of annual thunderstorm days increased about 42 days in the recent 60 years by the climate trend rate of 7.032 d/10 a.