中国畜牧业生产波动的特征及路径识别

基于1978—2016年畜禽产品年度产量数据,采用HP滤波技术和非线性MS-AR模型,分析中国畜牧业生产波动的特征,从畜牧业生产区制转换的视角剖析畜牧业生产波动的具体路径,探讨影响畜牧业生产波动和路径转换的原因。结果表明:从生产波动变化趋势上看,猪肉生产增长高峰期出现最早,其次是牛肉、羊肉、禽肉和禽蛋生产,牛奶生产增长高峰期出现时间最晚;从生产波动比较上看,猪肉生产波动幅度最小,其他畜牧产业生产波动幅度相对较大,各畜牧产业生产波动趋势存在差异,但近年来总体趋于收敛。通过模型识别将畜牧业生产划分为低速、中速和快速增长3个区制,低速和中速增长区制下各畜禽业产品产量平均增长率在3%和5%左右,而快速增长区制下平均增长率在10%以上;猪肉生产倾向于保持中速增长,牛肉、羊肉和牛奶生产容易出现低中速增长往复徘徊的现象,禽肉和禽蛋生产在各区制下均较为稳定且区制变迁较为平稳;改革开放以来,除牛奶产业以外,其他畜牧产业生产基本在低速或中速增长区制时间最长。基于此,提出针对不同畜禽产业在不同发展阶段相机制定不同调控政策,推动畜禽产业规模化养殖和产业化经营水平,提高畜禽产业抗冲击能力等建议。

Fluctuation characteristics and path identification of the livestock industry in China

Based on the annual output data of livestock and poultry products from 1978 to 2016 in China and the HP filter technology and the nonlinear MS-AR model, this paper analyzed the fluctuation characteristics and path identification of the livestock industry in China and explored the reasons for the fluctuation and path transformation of livestock production. Results show that the peak period of growth of pork production appeared first, followed by beef, lamb, poultry meats and poultry eggs, and the peak period of milk production growth appeared later. The fluctuation range of pork production was the smallest, while the fluctuations of production in other industries were relatively large. There were differences among the production fluctuation trends of different industries, but showing a converging trend in recent years. The production of livestock and poultry products can be divided into three zones, including low speed, middle speed, and fast speed. The average growth rate of livestock and poultry products was about 3% and 5% under the low and middle speed growth zone systems, and the average growth rate of livestock and poultry products was about 10% under the fast growth zone system. Pork production tends to maintain a moderate growth, and beef and lamb productions tend to stay at the low speed and moderate speed growth. The growth rates of poultry meats and poultry eggs were relatively stable in all districts, and milk production tends to stay at the middle and low speeds. The livestock industry, in addition to milk production, was basically in the low or moderate growth zone system for the longest period. Based on the above analysis, this paper provides the following suggestions: formulating different regulatory policies according to the different livestock industries in different stages, promoting the scale production of livestock and poultry and the level of industrial management, and improving the anti-shock ability of the livestock and poultry industries.