江苏省县域经济发展差异特征和空间机理及政策建议——基于1990-2011年的实证研究

以江苏省65个县(市)人均GDP为经济指标,测算出1990-2011年的泰尔指数,利用空间计量模型,对江苏省县域经济差异的时空特征及其空间机理作了初步探索。结果表明县域经济总体差异呈现扩大趋势,苏南、苏中、苏北三大地区之间的差异以及苏北内部、苏南内部差异是江苏省县域经济总体差异的主要贡献者,形成"三足鼎立"之势;县域经济之间存在较强的空间自相关性,经济发展相似地区在空间上呈聚集分布格局,且集聚的程度不断增强;局部空间格局表现为以"苏州-无锡"为核心的圈层空间分布结构;县域经济发展的自组织性较强,空间格局演化中的随机成分较低,而由结构化分异引起的空间差异越来越显著;东北-西南方向县域经济差异较小,而东南-西北方向县域经济差异较大。从完善合作机制、调整产业结构、建立人才引进制度等方面提出县域经济协调可持续发展的对策。

Research on Spatial Disparity and Spatial Mechanism of Economy at County Level in Jiangsu Province——Based on the Empirical Study from 1990 to 2011

On the base of the index of per capita GDP at county scale in Jiangsu, theil index during 1990-2011 is measured, by the method of combining spatial autocorrelation and statistic analysis, spatial-temporal pattern and mechanism of county economic in Jiangsu are discussed. The results show that: the total economic disparities of county economic in Jiangsu Province have enlarged, the integral economic disparities of county level in Jiangsu are bred by the disparity among North Jiangsu, South Jiangsu, Middle Jiangsu and the disparities inside North Jiangsu and inside South Jiangsu; there is a strong element of economic development spatial autocorrelation, meaning that the economy of counties which around the economically developed counties are often more developed, and the accumulation state is more and more obvious; local space pattern performs the circle-shaped space distribution structure that Suzhou, Wuxi are the core; the Jiangsu spatial economy framework tends to be more continuous and self-organized, the random of the spatial differential pattern keeps decreasing and the mechanism of the structural differentiation caused by natural correlation in space is becoming more and more remarkable; the homogeneousness of economy development in the direction of southeast-northwest is typical for its relatively small spatial difference, as to the opposite direction, the spatial difference is great. Last, the paper put forward some suggestions to promote county economy development.