农村居民新农保参保行为及其影响因素

参保率是新型农村养老保险能否增进农民养老保障水平的关键。基于激励机制设计和计量经济学相关理论,利用江苏、四川、陕西、河北和吉林5省的农户调研数据,使用面板固定效应模型研究农民参保行为变迁及其影响因素,探讨提高农民新型农村养老保险参保率的有效办法。结果表明:近年来农民新农保参保率从74.6%下降到了72.1%,且存在一定区域差异,而参加其他社会养老保险和不参加任何社会养老保险的农民比例则有所上升。农民新农保参保率下降的主要原因是新满足新农保参保条件的农民参保率远低于年满59岁即将不再满足新农保参保条件农民的参保率。农民年龄与参保行为呈倒U型曲线关系;家庭抚养比和参保行为间有负相关关系;新农保"长缴多得"政策对参保行为有正向激励作用。因此,政府可以在参保时间和激励强度方面根据激励相容的原则出台更多有效的激励政策鼓励农民早参保,同时结合精准扶贫战略和其他涉农政策补充与完善针对弱势群体的补贴救助政策,做到应保尽保。

The New Rural Social Pension Program in rural China: Participation and its determinants

Participation in the New Rural Social Pension Program (NRSPP) is essential for improving the wellbeing of the elderly in rural China. This paper examines the change in that participation rate by using survey data collected from five rural provinces. It analyzes relevant influencing factors by using the Fixed-Effects model, and explores some effective measures to increase NRSPP participation. The results show that participation in the NRSPP has dropped from 74.6% to 72.1% in recent years, and has disparate participation across different regions. Furthermore, the proportion of farmers who either participate in other pension plans, or do not participate at all, is on the rise. Decline in the participation rate may be due to older people being more likely to participate the NRSPP than younger people. This study also found that there is an inverted U-shaped curve which describes the relationship between age and participation in the NRSPP. The family dependency ratio has a significant negative influence on participation, and the practice of increasing returns for contributors who pay in longer has a significant positive influence on participation. These results imply that the government should implement more effective and longer-term incentives for the NRSPP. Likewise, to cover all eligible rural residents, the government should supplement and improve existing policies, while also ensuring that new policies align with previous poverty alleviation strategies and agricultural policies.