世界新一轮粮价上涨因素的多层面分析

世界粮价进入新一轮上涨时期,成因复杂.供需失衡仍是首因:世界人口的增长、传统饮食结构的转型、生物能源产业的勃兴等导致世界粮食需求绝对增长;工业化与城市化疯狂的"罔地运动"、气候变暖引致的大规模自然灾害的"常态化"、发达国家高额农业补贴的抑制作用等造成世界粮食供应相对不足.在此基础上,粮食产运成本的普遍提高、美元的连续贬值、国际资本的投机等成为推动粮价上涨的直接因素.而从根本上看,本轮全球粮价上涨则是世界农业价值回归大势的反映.

Analysis of New Round of Soaring World Food Prices from Varied Angles

The world grain price has entered a new stage of rise which has intricate causes.Most important of all, unbalance of supply and demand of grain in the world is still the primary reason.The increase of world population, the betterments of the people's recipe composition,and the boost of the bio-energy industry all bring about the demand of world grain an absolute rise.Accordingly,the world grain is in short supply mainly on account of the crazy enclosure campaign by industrialization and urbanization,the normalization of natural calamities caused by warmer weather and the negative roles of the long-figured financial subsidies by developed countries. Moreover,the overall increase of the producing and transportation cost,the continuous depreciation of USA dollar and the speculation of transnational capitals become the immediate reasons. Lastly,and also fundamentally,the new round of the rise of world food prices reflects the return of the value of agriculture.