湖北省生态文明水平现状、趋势推演及空间分异研究——基于乘法集成赋权法

根据生态文明理论,基于绿色经济、社会和谐、环境友好、资源节约4个方面,利用乘法集成赋权法和综合指数法,构建湖北省生态文明水平评价指标体系,从全省和各市两个尺度分析湖北生态文明水平的时空特征,探讨湖北省生态文明水平现状、趋势推演及空间分异状况。结果表明,2013年湖北省生态文明水平现状为0.716 8,处于中上水平,其中环境友好、资源节约状况较好,绿色经济、社会和谐水平有待改善。时序数据分析结果表明,2004-2013年湖北生态文明水平提高了58.34%,由中等上升到中上等水平,生态文明建设初见成效,4个子系统都有提升但发展有失协调,其中绿色经济增幅最大,社会和谐增幅最小。动态推演分析则表明,湖北省生态文明水平2018年有望达到I级。以省内12个城市为对象研究湖北生态文明水平的空间分异状况,结果显示各市生态文明水平存在显著差异,武汉最高,荆州最低;聚类分析将12个城市划分为高、中上、中下、低水平4类。此外,全域Moran’s I指数结果表明,各市生态文明发展是一种竞争关系,LISA分布说明武汉存在极化效应,荆州为过渡区域。因此,湖北需注重4大系统的协调发展,各市需因地制宜地弥补不足;通过合作机制与辐射吸收弱化极化区并消减过渡区,逐步扭转空间竞争为融合,从而实现湖北生态文明建设的一体化发展。

Ecological civilization evaluation of Hubei Province based on a multiplication weighting method

Based on the theory of ecological civilization, this paper constructed an ecological civilization evaluation index system for Hubei Province by using a multiplication weighting and comprehensive index method which incorporates four domains of green economy, social harmony, resource-saving, and environment-friendly. Then this paper analyzed the current situation, dynamic trend, and spatial differentiation of ecological civilization level from both provincial and municipal aspects. Results show that 1) based on 2013 cross sectional data, the level of ecological civilization in Hubei Province was 0.716 8, which was just above the average. Resource-saving and environment-friendly domains were in good condition, while the green economy and social harmony domains need further improvement; 2) based on the time series data from 2004 to 2013, the level of ecological civilization in Hubei has increased by 58.34% in the past decade, from the medium level to the higher level, showing that the construction of ecological civilization had achieved its initial success. All the four subsystems had been improved with little coordination. The growth of green economy was the biggest and the social harmony was the smallest; 3) dynamic deduction analysis showed that the level of ecological civilization in Hubei Province in 2018 could reach level 1; 4) when examining 12 selected cities of Hubei Province, the spatial distribution analysis showed that the level of ecological civilization in Wuhan was the highest and Jingzhou was the lowest; 5) the clustering analysis implied that the 12 selected cities were divided into 4 types, including high, above average, below average, and low; 6) the spatial autocorrelation test results showed that the cities displayed a competitive relationship in ecological civilization development; and 7) the LISA distribution stated that Wuhan existed polarization effect, while Jingzhou was the transition area. To realize the integration of ecological civilization construction of Hubei Province, this research suggests that Hubei should pay attention to the coordinated development of four systems and cities need to make up the shortfall by adjusting measures to local conditions and gradually reverse the space competition with cooperation mechanism and adopt radiation absorption to weaken polarization area and to reduce the transition area.