中国主粮价格支持政策效应分析——基于产销区省级面板数据

粮食价格支持政策是我国稳定粮食供给的重要调控政策之一。本文利用2000-2013年中国小麦、稻谷和玉米价格、产量、需求量等数据,构建了以供需、成本和政策因素为主要解释变量的主粮产销区面板数据模型,通过在模型中引入虚拟变量和交叉变量,研究了价格支持政策对三种主粮市场价格的托市效应和产销区区域效应。研究发现,主粮价格支持政策起到了一定程度的托市作用,并且政策覆盖范围越广、执行力度越强,托市效应越明显;主粮价格支持政策在产销区的效应不存在显著的地区差异,表明该政策并未实现对粮食主产区的利益补偿,反而加大了主粮区域性供求矛盾,致使部分主销区主粮价格过高。最后,提出通过适当规模经营降低粮食生产成本;逐步建立发挥市场机制的粮食价格支持政策;继续加大对粮食主产区的补贴等政策建议。

Analysis of price support policy for staple grain in China: Based on provincial-level panel data in producing and consuming regions

Grain price support policy is an important regulating policy for ensuring grain supply in China. Based on the panel data of the price, output, and demand of wheat, rice, and corn from 2000 to 2013 from both producing and consuming regions, taking supply and demand, cost, and policy factors, as well as dummy variables and cross variables in the model, this paper examined the effect of price support policies on stabilizing the market prices of wheat, rice, and corn and the regional effect in producing and consuming regions. Result shows that staple grain price support policies have stabilized the market prices to a certain degree. Wider geographic policy coverage and stronger execution support market prices more significantly. The effect of staple grain price support policies does not have an obvious regional difference. This means that the policies did not bring adequate compensation to major grain producing areas; instead, regional imbalances between supply and demand for staple grain is enlarged, making staple grain prices in some consuming regions too high. To enhance the effects of the price support polices, this paper provides the following suggestions: reducing grain production costs by expanding the scale of operations, launching marketing oriented grain price support policies, and increasing subsidies in main grain producing regions.