新型农业经营体系与现代农业发展的关联效应研究——以湖北省为例

构建集约化、专业化、组织化、社会化相结合的新型农业经营体系,是加快现代农业发展的重要举措。探讨新型农业经营体系与现代农业发展的关联效应,对于推动新型农业经营体系与现代农业协同发展意义重大。基于2013—2017年湖北省新型农业经营体系与现代农业发展水平的主要评价指标数据,采用灰色关联模型测算分析了新型农业经营体系与现代农业发展的关联效应。结果显示:1)新型农业经营体系与现代农业发展之间存在显著的关联效应;2)新型农业经营体系各评价指标与现代农业发展水平的关联度存在一定差异性,其中,注册登记家庭农场数、农林牧渔服务业产值占比、家庭承包耕地流转面积占比、农业机械化程度与现代农业发展水平的关联度最大,农业劳动生产率、农户入社率、省级农业龙头企业数、规模经营面积、通过农产品质量安全认证的农业企业数与现代农业发展水平的关联度次之,土地生产率与现代农业发展水平的关联度最小。为促进湖北省现代农业持续稳定协调发展,提出着力培育多元规范的新型农业经营主体;加快构建多元高效的现代农业社会化服务体系;深化农村土地产权制度改革与流转机制创新;创建新型农业经营体系运营高效的体制机制等政策建议。

The analysis of the correlation between the new agricultural management system and the modern agricultural development: A case study of Hubei Province

Constructing a new concentrated, specialized, organized, and socialized agricultural management system is a critical step for revitalizing rural economy and promoting the development of modern agriculture. Examining the correlation effects between the new agricultural management system and the modern agricultural development is of great significance for promoting the coordinated development of the new agricultural management system and modern agriculture. Based on main evaluation index data of new agricultural management system and modern agricultural development levels of 2013-2017 in Hubei Province, this paper calculated and analyzed the correlation effects between the new agricultural management system and modern agricultural development by the grey correlation model. Results show that: 1) there is a significant correlation between the new agricultural business system and the development of modern agriculture; 2) there exist differences on the correlation degree between the evaluation index of the new agricultural management system and the development level of modern agriculture. The number of the registered family farms, the proportional output values of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries, the farmland circulation ratio of households, and the agricultural mechanization degree have strong correlation with the development level of modern agriculture. While the agricultural labor productivity, the percentage of farmers joining cooperatives, the number of agricultural leading companies at the provincial level, the farm operation scales, and the number of agricultural enterprises passing the quality and safety certification of agricultural products have relatively weak correlation. And the land productivity has the least correlation. To promote the sustainable, stable, and coordinated development of modern agriculture in Hubei Province, this paper provides the following policy suggestions: to cultivate new diverse and organized agricultural business entities, to promote the development of modern socialized agricultural service sections, to deepen the reform of farmland property right system and the farmland circulation mechanism, and to create efficient operating systems and mechanisms of modern agricultural management system.